Comparative Financial Charting: Stock Price vs. Quarterly Earnings

I will retrieve the quarterly earnings data for Tesla (TSLA) from the last five years.

I will process the gathered historical stock data and quarterly earnings to create a single graph comparing their trends over time.

That is an excellent question. Analyzing the relationship between a company's actual earnings and its stock price is crucial for understanding its valuation, especially for a high-growth, high-volatility stock like Tesla (TSLA). I have gathered the last five years of historical monthly stock data and quarterly actual Earnings Per Share (EPS) data for Tesla and compiled them into a single comparative graph. ### **Tesla Stock Price vs. Actual Quarterly EPS (2020–2025)** The graph below illustrates how Tesla's closing stock price (monthly) and its actual quarterly EPS have trended over the last five years.  *** ### **Analysis of the Relationship** The comparison reveals a complex relationship where the stock price is often driven by factors beyond immediate, reported profitability, particularly future growth expectations and market sentiment. #### **1. The Initial Correlation (2020 - Early 2022)** * **Strong Alignment:** From late 2020 through early 2022, the stock price and EPS showed a strong positive correlation. * **EPS Growth:** Actual EPS grew significantly, moving from a low of **$0.14** in Q1 2020 to a peak of **$1.19** in Q4 2022. * **Stock Price Surge:** The stock price mirrored this success, surging from approximately **$235** in December 2020 to its all-time highs in late 2021/early 2022. #### **2. The Decoupling and Volatility (2022 - Early 2023)** * **Stock Price Drop Despite High EPS:** This period shows a clear divergence. * The stock price experienced a massive decline throughout 2022, hitting a low around **$173** in January 2023. * Crucially, this drop occurred *while* Tesla was reporting its highest actual EPS figures, peaking at **$1.19** in Q4 2022. * **Interpretation:** This decoupling suggests that the stock price was reacting more to macroeconomic factors (rising interest rates, which hurt growth stocks) and company-specific concerns (e.g., CEO activity, demand fears) than to the current quarter's profitability. #### **3. The Recovery and Continued Divergence (2023 - 2025)** * **Stock Price Recovery vs. EPS Decline:** The stock price saw a strong recovery in 2023 and 2024, reaching approximately **$404** by November 2025. * However, this recovery happened even as the actual EPS began to decline from its 2022 peak, dropping to **$0.66** in Q3 2023 and further to **$0.39** in the latest reported quarter (Q3 2025). * **Interpretation:** This pattern reinforces the view that Tesla is valued as a **growth stock**. Investors are pricing in future potential (e.g., FSD, robotaxis, new models, energy storage) rather than the current quarter's earnings. The stock price is highly sensitive to news and projections about future revenue streams, often overlooking short-term dips in profitability. ### **Key Data Points (Actual EPS)** The following table highlights the actual quarterly EPS reported by Tesla over the last five years, demonstrating the volatility in profitability: | Earnings Date | Quarter | Actual EPS | Surprise % | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Jan 28, 2020 | Q4 2019 | $0.14 | 27.27% | | Oct 20, 2020 | Q3 2020 | $0.25 | 31.58% | | Jan 26, 2021 | Q4 2020 | $0.27 | -20.59% | | Oct 20, 2021 | Q3 2021 | $0.62 | 14.81% | | Jan 25, 2022 | Q4 2021 | $0.85 | 7.59% | | Apr 19, 2022 | Q1 2022 | $1.07 | 42.67% | | **Jan 24, 2023** | **Q4 2022** | **$1.19 (Peak)** | **5.31%** | | Oct 17, 2023 | Q3 2023 | $0.66 | -8.33% | | Apr 23, 2024 | Q1 2024 | $0.45 | -8.16% | | **Oct 22, 2025** | **Q3 2025** | **$0.39 (Latest)** | **-11.36%** | ### **Conclusion** While Tesla's stock price initially tracked its impressive growth in actual earnings from 2020 to 2022, the relationship has become less direct since then. * **Short-Term Earnings:** Quarterly EPS provides a measure of current operational efficiency and profitability. * **Stock Price:** The stock price is primarily a reflection of **future expectations**. It is highly sensitive to news regarding production targets, technological advancements (like FSD), and overall market sentiment toward high-growth technology companies. For Tesla, the stock price often acts as a **leading indicator** of future perceived success, rather than a direct reflection of the most recently reported earnings. Sources: - Price of TSLA for 2020-11-17 to 2025-11-17 - TSLA Earnings (2020-01-01 to 2025-11-17)